I wanted to post this before speed weeks at Daytona started in an effort to get my 2011 predictions out into the world unbiased by testing, the Duel and Shoot Out and the Daytona 500. Alas, work got in the way, as is all too often the case. But as a three day weekend allows time for a presidential load of chores, so too does it permit more useless inter-webbing. Here now are my predictions (totally unsolicited and most likely to be read by no one) for those drivers and teams whom I believe will be best able to challenge the #48 for the championship. Note how I say “challenge” because I believe ol’ Mr. 5-time is still the favorite this year and anyone who wants to win is going to have to rip the trophy from Jimmie Johnson’s hands.
And no one is better suited then his team mate, the #24 car which is driven by Jeff Gordon...that’s co-owner of the #48 car...Jeff Gordon. Four time Sprint Cup Champion...Jeff Gordon. The man responsible for the hiring of Jimmie Johnson and up till 2010, co-occupant of the same shop, chassis and engines as the #48 car...Jeff Gordon.
I know it’s no bold statement to pick a 4 time champ like Gordon as a favorite to win it all, but the #24 car has had it rough the past couple of years. Since 2007, in which Gordon finished 2nd in points, won 6 races, and set a modern day, single season NASCAR record with 30 top ten’s, wins have been elusive and bad luck has greased their hold on their own destiny. Gordon did manage to snap a career high 47 race winless streak in 2009, with a win at Texas Motor Speedway, but that was his only win of the season. And 2010 saw the #24 car go winless once again despite a number of 2nd place finishes. Many fans of the #24 have decided to put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the crew chief, Steve Letarte, who took control of the team in 2005 from Robbie Loomis, after the #24 failed to make it to the Chase (Play Offs).
Letarte has been with Hendrick Motor Sports, the #24 car’s team owner, full time since 1996, when he was just 16. He worked his way up through the ranks of Hendrick Motor Sports and the #24 team from tire specialist to car chief, and the team saw immediate improvement when Letarte took the reigns, visiting victory lane only 6 races into his tenure. With Letarte, the Dupont Chevy has made the Chase every year, but often times with inconsistent results. And with a driver and fans who are used to winning, it seemed a change was inevitable.
And change came two days after the end of the 2010 season with the #24 team, and two other teams at Hendrick, making what Jeff Gordon referred to as a driver swap. Excluding the #48 team, which remains mostly unchanged, the crew chiefs and their mechanics and engineers would go to work with different drivers and in some cases, at different team facilities and shops. Mark Martin’s (#5) crew chief, Allen Gustafsen, is now working with the #24, Letarte moving over to Dale Earnhardt Jr. (#88), and Lance McGrew pairing up with Mark Martin (#5). The #24 will now share a shop with the #5 and the #48 will share it’s shop with the #48.
I think this move is gonna pay off big for Gordon and the #24. Both Letarte and Gustafsen came up through the ranks at Hendrick, both have won races and have made the Chase. But the former pairing of Gordon and Letarte, though extremely friendly, seemed slightly stale, lacking explicit race winning chemistry. Many critics claimed Letarte was too much of a “cheerleader” and not focused enough on the details. Gustafsen has an engineering background and an explicit attention to detail. He’s worked his way up through the ranks from Late Model and Truck series crew chief, to Nationwide to Cup. He started working for Hendrick as a shock specialist for the #5 car and worked his way up to crew chief in 2005 with another rising star, Kyle Busch. In 2009, he teamed up with Mark Martin and the #5 car gave Jimmie Johnson a run for his championship money, leading the points at the end of the regular season and finishing the year in 2nd place. In the garage area, the guy is widely referred to as one of the smartest crew chiefs in modern day NASCAR and here’s what Jeff Gordon had to say about the move to Gustafsen; “I'm certainly looking forward to working with Alan...I've known Alan for a number of years, always respected him and I guess in the back of my mind, I always thought it would be kind of cool to work with him. It's a great opportunity."
I don’t think I’m the only one who interprets that last sentence to mean get ready to see the #24 car back in victory lane and Gordon seems hungrier then ever. Not just for wins, but for a 5th championship. I’d watch out if you got the 24 behind you on the last lap at Bristol, or Texas, or Michigan, or anywhere for that matter. Big Daddy’s out there.
Ford is back and they look stout. And i’m not talking about the domestic automobile market, or a single NASCAR team, but an entire race manufacturing package. A Ford just won the Daytona 500. And a Ford also came in 2nd place and 3rd place. The new FR9 engines, developed with the blank sheet of paper approach by Roush Yates Engines, with it’s improved cooling system and emphasis on reliability, serviceability and manufacturability, were impressive. Add to that the hot streak Carl Edwards (#99) ended the 2010 season with and his proven ability to win, i’d expect to see the Aflac Ford Fusion in victory lane multiple times this year.
Every year Kyle Busch (#18) seems to become a better race car driver. In 2011, I predict him winning the most races of the season and finishing in the top 5 in points.
My dark horse for the year, if you can call one of NASCAR’s most popular drivers a dark horse, is Kasey Kahne (#4), future Hendrick Team driver, who for 2011, is driving the Red Bull #4 Toyota Camry. But i feel the title is appropriate for a driver who had a dismal year in 2010, not qualifying for The Chase and even leaving his former race team 5 races before the end of the season, finishing 2010 in 20th place. It’s no surprise that Kahne was unhappy at Petty Motor Sports. And it almost seemed inevitable that he would be snatched up by one of the sport’s heavy weight race teams. In a multiyear, multi team deal, Kahne will join the Hendrick stables in 2012. For 2011, Kahne will drive for the Red Bull Team, a deal that sounds almost too good to be true for a driver of Kahne’s talent. Kasey has 11 Sprint Cup wins and 20 poles since starting cup racing full time in 2004 and is, in my opinion, one of the best at intermediate tracks. Imagine, being given the keys to a rocket ship and being told, “go out and drive as fast as you can, don’t worry about losing your job, just try to win.”
And i expect to see big things this year for them. Red Bull has a very diverse and distinguished racing pedigree, winning the Formula 1 championship last year and doing well in World Rally Car. They are a fiercely independent team whom have a rather unique position in the NASCAR world; they are self sponsored. They answer to no one but themselves. But last year was a strange year for them in NASCAR. Their franchise driver, Brian VIckers, was sidelined for most of the season for medical reasons and they had a rotating lineup of drivers, none of whom are with the team this year. But Red Bull seems set to run this year, Vickers is back and now they have a true winner in Kahne. Their engine department is considered one of the best is NASCAR despite it’s relative young age. The engine blow out during the Budweiser shoot out aside, Kahne qualified near the top of class for the Toyotas, which didn’t show much speed in single car qualifying but were stout in the draft during racing. Look for much more promising results as we enter the more common NASCAR tracks and move away from the spectacle and drafting of Daytona.
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