Fort Worth, Texas - TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
April 9th, 2011
After a recent trip to Vegas and some informative NASCAR betting, I thought it would be fun to start making a few race predictions and taking a look at what the odds makers at Caesar’s and other casinos on the strip think about this weekend’s action.
Things to consider:
First of all, this is Texas. Everything is bigger in Texas. People love this track for it’s fan friendly nature and insanely fast speeds and it regularly sells out. So what does that mean for race predictions...? Well, I don’t know. Not much, I guess...the only Texas native in the race is Bobby Labonte, an aging veteran on a boutique race team with moderate results so far this year. The #47 is a 350:1 to win, a bet I would never take. And even if Labonte was in contention for the championship, I believe home field advantage historically doesn’t play much into race results.
That said, if there is any driver who can gain an adrenaline boost from an uber supportive crowd, it’s Dale Earnhardt Jr., who had Jr. Nation in a frenzy last week with his 2nd place finish at Martinsville. Jr. has a lot of support in Texas, so look for plenty of 88 flags waving. And for a driver whose biggest chip isn’t necessarily the machinery (he runs the same cars as Jimmie Johnson after all) but his confidence, he might just get that little edge he needs from the crowd. Jr. has won at Texas once before, in fact, it was the first Sprint Cup win of his career. He holds the best average start position at Texas, though his qualifying run was less then stellar, the tail end of the car swinging out on the exit of the turns and hopping down the back stretch. Despite all the hype, though, Dale just doesn’t seem to have his confidence back. He doesn’t smile or look up during interviews or race intro’s. In fact, commenting on last week’s 2nd place finish, Jr. said the car was an 8th place car, and the team had yet to produce a winning hot rod. There is a lot of hype surrounding the #88 team with the decent start to the season they have, and everyone in NASCAR, from fans to drivers, wants to see Dale Jr. back in victory lane. But I just think the team isn’t where they need to be yet to win races and a top 15 is what they will get on Saturday night. Vegas has Jr. at a 20:1 to win, which seems on the money., and at 6:1 for a top 3, which seems high, but hey, sometimes you gotta bet with your heart.
Now to the particulars. Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile quad oval track, which means that the front stretch juts out into the grand stand area making it longer than the back stretch. This particular geometry allows drivers to mash down on the gas longer and greater speeds to be achieved on the front stretch and carried into the entry of turn 1. All four turns at Texas Motor Speed way have the same 24 degree banking, however the entry and exit of each set of turns are not progressively banked as much as other intermediate tracks meaning the entry and exit are fairly “flat.” This makes each turn a challenge to keep the car in control, especially when carrying over 200 mph of speed coming off the front stretch. The car slides into the turn, gets caught by the banking in the middle, and slides again as the banking falls away and the driver gets back into the gas. The driver who can best “float” the car into the corner and hold the gas down from the middle on will be able to handle the turns best. Just the kind of track Juan Pablo Montoya seems to do well on. He didn’t qualify all that well, starting 14th, but ran very well in practice and has 2 top 10’s at Texas. His car looked like it wasn’t sticking to the track which could be the result of an aggressive shock package, according to Darrel Waltrip, a move which could prove advantageous when the track transitions to night. Regardless, this guy is hungry for a win at an oval track and he and his teammate Jamie McMurray have been working very well with each other. The #42 is a 35:1 to win, a spicy bet to have in your back pocket. I don’t see him winning, but maybe fighting for a top 10.
The track surface at Texas is fairly weathered, but wide with multiple grooves which tends to favor the wheelman. Texas used to be considered the fastest of the non-restrictor plate race tracks, with a 2006 qualifying record of 196.2 mph set by Brian Vickers. But track times have fallen off as the racing surface has aged and grip has gone away. However, this race has traditionally been held on Sunday afternoons, with daytime temperatures and the slick racing conditions that brings. High’s in the 90‘s are predicted for race day, with a fairly large temperature drop off, reaching the lower 70’s, when the sun goes down.
This is the first time in track history a cup race will be held on a Saturday night, with about an hour of direct sunlight before magic hour and then nightfall. Of course, this means teams will have to deal with three types of race conditions: daylight, transition, and night racing. Traditionally, as the temperatures drop, the track tightens up, grip increases and speeds go up. Each racing condition has their own set of challenges and the team best able to adapt the car to the changing track conditions will have the best chance to fight for the win. And this is exactly the type of race which NASCAR’s smartest crew chief, Chad Knaus, and the 5 time champion Jimmie Johnson excel. These guys know how to make adjustments and set up a car to go through various race transitions. The #48 hasn’t had the strongest start to their season, but you wouldn’t guess that with them sitting 3rd in points. But they’ve had some bad luck and watched more than 1 win slip away. However, they always seem to bounce back from adversity, and after last week’s pit road speeding violation, look for the #48 to do just that. They qualified the best of all the Hendrick cars, starting 6th. They didn’t practice all that well, but i believe that’s because they were in race trim and focusing on various set up’s for night time transitions. He’s a 13:2 to win, which i think is right on the money. I’ll be looking for Jimmie Johnson is victory lane. He’s been there at Texas once before and has one of the best average finishes of 10.1 at the track.
Johnson’s team mate Mark Martin runs well at Texas with 1 Sprint Cup win and 3 Nationwide wins. Mark said his car turns really well in race trim but in qualifying trim the car wasn’t as good, which explains his 21st place starting position. But he has the most top tens of all active drivers at Texas. I predict a top 15 for Mr. Martin.
Texas Motor Speedway is categorized as one of the many intermediate tracks on the circuit, which many fans and pundits have claimed are all too cookie cutter and similar. But drivers say that each track, intermediate or not, are very different. In pre qualifying interviews, Jeff Gordon called Texas Motor Speedway the most challenging intermediate track on the circuit. Gordon was nervous about qualifying and spent a lot of practice time in race trim, similar to his other Hendrick team mates. As a result of his slower practice speed, the #24 car had to make their qualifying run early when the track is hot and slick and ended up with a 32nd starting place. But the car looked smooth in the turns, with little slipping on entry and exit, and the added practice time in race trim might mean the car will excel on long, green flag runs. Gordon has won at Texas once before, in 2009, and has an average finish of 17th. Vegas has him at 12 :1 odds to win and 6:1 to be in the top 3, which I think is a little high. He’s won once this year but has been inconsistent, averaging a 17th place finish. His crew chief, Allen Gustafsen is one of the best in the biz at adjusting race cars to changing track conditions, but with their 32nd starting position, i predict the #24 finishing top 15.
One of the best at intermediate tracks is Kasey Kahne, who is the only driver to win at Texas from the pole. He ran a good qualifying lap, lost some time in the sun going up too high on the track, but in the shade his car ran smooth and turned in well, and hugged the bottom of the middle groove. Oh, and he was the fastest in practice. Kasey has had terrible luck this season, and if he can stay out of trouble I see him finishing top 10. 10:1 odds to finish top 3 seem dead on, and a 35:1 to win is a bet i’d make.
One of the most reliable factors in calculating odds in NASCAR is past performance, but Texas is a track where past performance isn’t always a reliable indicator of potential performance. The track had it’s first race in 1997, and it took 10 years of racing to see a repeat winner. In fact, so many different drivers have won at Texas that 8 of the top 10 in championship points have a win at the track. Recently, we’ve seen more “streakiness” at Texas with Denny Hamlin winning both races in 2010, and Carl Edwards winning both in 2008. But the 2011 season has been fairly unpredictable so far, with 5 different winners in the first 5 races and a record number of lead changes in three different races. Not to mention all the last lap passing and photo finishes we’ve seen this year, it seems NASCAR has achieved the parity and increased competition they’ve strived for. When one team starts to pull away in dominance, it seems the rest of the field can catch up in a matter of weeks.
There have been a number of pleasant surprises with new names in the top 15 in points, while others have had dismal starts to the year like Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin, who won the most races last year and finished 2nd in points, but currently sits 19th in points. Engine woes have hurt the #11, but i think the most damage has come to their collective pride and team work. Hamlin has been very vocal about his teams’ recent shortcomings, in the kind of way that doesn’t inspire others.
Last year, Denny won the spring Texas race 2 weeks after knee surgery, brimming with confidence from his Martinsville win. And he took that confidence into the fall race which was round 10 of the championship fight with the #48. None of that confidence is apparent this year and though his record at Texas is good, i’m not looking for the #11 to fight for the win. i think Vegas’ 11:1 to win is based too much on stats and not enough on heart. Denny qualified 23rd, which is a surprise to no one...he started 29th and 30th for both of the races he won last year, but despite the favorable odds and stellar history, I don’t expect to see the #11 in the top 5.
A focus on stats has Kyle Busch as an 8:1 to win. Kyle has lead the most laps of anyone this year, and has twice as many laps led as he did at this point last year. He has a win this year and 5 top 10‘s, but has never won a Sprint Cup race at Texas, despite 7 Camping World and Nationwide wins. This year, Kyle seems like a threat to win everywhere he goes, but I’m looking for the Roush Fords to hold him to a top 10. The most conservative odds on the table are for Kyle Busch to get a top 3, at 5:2...‘nough said.
Carl Edwards is the my race favorite to win. He is one of the hottest drivers this year with 1 win, 4 top 10’s and an average finish of 9.5. This hot streak has carried over from last year and his #99 team has been the poster boy for Ford Racing’s comeback, whose new FR 9 engine platform has proved capable of winning races and dominating the competition with their focus on running higher engine temp’s, a lower center of gravity and higher horsepower, just the type of engine needed to win at Texas. Edwards is the only driver in NASCAR to have won 3 races at Texas, however, when he doesn’t win, he tends not to finish very well there. In the last 4 races, he only has 1 top 10. But he is starting on the outside of the front row and just won the Nationwide Race at Texas. Vegas has Carl at 6:1 odds to win. Brave. I’d give him 4:1. He’s 11:10 to be top 3, which basically means everyone expects him to do well. I think the only thing that will keep him from winning is if he gets caught up in a wreck or has to serve a penalty.
Edward’s race team, Roush Racing, dominates at Texas and all 4 Roush drivers are starting in the top 10 positions tonight. David Ragan is sitting on the pole and was the class of the field in practice and qualifying during which his car looked like it was running on a rail. But he just hasn’t shown us yet that he can hold on for an entire race up front and fight off the likes of Harvick, Johnson and Busch. I see his inexperience giving way to the marquee drivers...at first, but this season has been full of unpredictable finishes and who knows, maybe tonight we’ll see another first time winner. If anyone is going to do it, the #6 Ford is the car. He’s a 30:1 to win and 9:1 to be top 3. If you’re going to take a long shot, do it with this car.
His teammate Greg Biffle will start 9th and has won at Texas and has 5 consecutive top 10‘s. He is not a long shot. Biffle was 2nd fastest in practice and has a good car, which was able to make up some time after a slip after turn 2 during his qualifying run. Look for the Biff to run up front and battle for the lead, but fall back for a top 5. Matt Kenseth was 8th fastest in practice and ran a good, solid qualifying lap, fast enough for a 4th place starting position. And Kenseth kills it at Texas. He has 11 top ten’s, 1 win and an average finish of 9.5. Many in the media see this as Kenseth’s race to lose. He certainly is hungry for a win, he hasn’t won since California in 2009. Kenseth is 1 of the 4 drivers I have picked to win, along with Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart.
One of the long shots is Paul Menard, who was one of the best in practice with 10 lap averages. Menard has been one of the pleasant surprises this year, and with a 20:1 to be top 3, seems like a good payoff. His odds to win are long, 65:1, but if there is going to be a first time winner tonight, i’d bet it will be Mr. Menard or David Ragan. His team mate Clint Bowyer, who had a blazing fast qualifying lap, is starting 3rd, fastest of the RCR guys. Clint’s cold start to the year might start to heat up at Texas, where he has 5 top 10’s. I’m looking for Clint to finish top 5. Kevin Harvick is the hottest driver in the sport right now with 2 wins in a row. He has only led 1 lap at Texas but has 4 top 10’s in his last 5 starts, with a best finish of 3rd. Pretty good stats, but in his qualifying run the car seemed a little jukey and was slow in practice, running 24th fastest. Also, i must admit, I just don’t like Harvick that much despite his magical ability to scratch out good finishes where ever he goes. I predict a top 10 for the #29. The final RCR driver, Jeff Burton, historically runs well at Texas, with 2 wins and 9 top 10’s, but has been so bad this year and needs a good finish. I look for these guys to be pushing with everything they have and getting a top 8.
My dark horse pick is Regan Smith who laid down an early fast lap and has been qualifying well all year. He starts the race 5th and is 150:1 to win. Come on, with those odds how could you not throw something at him. He was fast in practice and has been one of the pleasant surprises this year with 1 top 10 finish. I expect a top 15 for them if they can stay out of trouble.
Finally, my come from behind for the win pick is Tony Stewart, who was 2nd in practice despite putting down a horrible qualifying run. His car was very loose, possibly the result of the track not tightening up the way everyone expected, possibly a result of the tire combo not reacting exactly the way the #14 thought it would. But if anyone can win from the back it’s Tony Stewart. I’m looking for him to fight for the win. I’d put him at 9:1, Vegas has him at 11:1. We will see.
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