Odds Maker: Texas Style

Fort Worth, Texas - TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

April 9th, 2011

After a recent trip to Vegas and some informative NASCAR betting, I thought it would be fun to start making a few race predictions and taking a look at what the odds makers at Caesar’s and other casinos on the strip think about this weekend’s action.

Things to consider:

First of all, this is Texas.  Everything is bigger in Texas.  People love this track for it’s fan friendly nature and insanely fast speeds and it regularly sells out.  So what does that mean for race predictions...? Well, I don’t know.  Not much, I guess...the only Texas native in the race is Bobby Labonte, an aging veteran on a boutique race team with moderate results so far this year.  The #47 is a 350:1 to win, a bet I would never take.  And even if Labonte was in contention for the championship, I believe home field advantage historically doesn’t play much into race results.

That said, if there is any driver who can gain an adrenaline boost from an uber supportive crowd, it’s Dale Earnhardt Jr., who had Jr. Nation in a frenzy last week with his 2nd place finish at Martinsville.  Jr. has a lot of support in Texas, so look for plenty of 88 flags waving.  And for a driver whose biggest chip isn’t necessarily the machinery (he runs the same cars as Jimmie Johnson after all) but his confidence, he might just get that little edge he needs from the crowd.  Jr. has won at Texas once before, in fact, it was the first Sprint Cup win of his career.  He holds the best average start position at Texas, though his qualifying run was less then stellar, the tail end of the car swinging out on the exit of the turns and hopping down the back stretch.  Despite all the hype, though, Dale just doesn’t seem to have his confidence back.  He doesn’t smile or look up during interviews or race intro’s.  In fact, commenting on last week’s 2nd place finish, Jr. said the car was an 8th place car, and the team had yet to produce a winning hot rod.  There is a lot of hype surrounding the #88 team with the decent start to the season they have, and everyone in NASCAR, from fans to drivers, wants to see Dale Jr. back in victory lane.  But I just think the team isn’t where they need to be yet to win races and a top 15 is what they will get on Saturday night.  Vegas has Jr. at a 20:1 to win, which seems on the money., and at 6:1 for a top 3, which seems high, but hey, sometimes you gotta bet with your heart.

Now to the particulars.  Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile quad oval track, which means that the front stretch juts out into the grand stand area making it longer than the back stretch.  This particular geometry allows drivers to mash down on the gas longer and greater speeds to be achieved on the front stretch and carried into the entry of turn 1.  All four turns at Texas Motor Speed way have the same 24 degree banking, however the entry and exit of each set of turns are not progressively banked as much as other intermediate tracks meaning the entry and exit are fairly “flat.”  This makes each turn a challenge to keep the car in control, especially when carrying over 200 mph of speed coming off the front stretch.  The car slides into the turn, gets caught by the banking in the middle, and slides again as the banking falls away and the driver gets back into the gas.  The driver who can best “float” the car into the corner and hold the gas down from the middle on will be able to handle the turns best.  Just the kind of track Juan Pablo Montoya seems to do well on.  He didn’t qualify all that well, starting 14th, but ran very well in practice and has 2 top 10’s at Texas.  His car looked like it wasn’t sticking to the track which could be the result of an aggressive shock package, according to Darrel Waltrip, a move which could prove advantageous when the track transitions to night.  Regardless, this guy is hungry for a win at an oval track and he and his teammate Jamie McMurray have been working very well with each other.  The #42 is a 35:1 to win, a spicy bet to have in your back pocket.  I don’t see him winning, but maybe fighting for a top 10.  

The track surface at Texas is fairly weathered, but wide with multiple grooves which tends to favor the wheelman.  Texas used to be considered the fastest of the non-restrictor plate race tracks, with a 2006 qualifying record of 196.2 mph set by Brian Vickers.  But track times have fallen off as the racing surface has aged and grip has gone away.  However, this race has traditionally been held on Sunday afternoons, with daytime temperatures and the slick racing conditions that brings.  High’s in the 90‘s are predicted for race day, with a fairly large temperature drop off, reaching the lower 70’s, when the sun goes down.

This is the first time in track history a cup race will be held on a Saturday night, with about an hour of direct sunlight before magic hour and then nightfall.  Of course, this means teams will have to deal with three types of race conditions: daylight, transition, and night racing.  Traditionally, as the temperatures drop, the track tightens up, grip increases and speeds go up.  Each racing condition has their own set of challenges and the team best able to adapt the car to the changing track conditions will have the best chance to fight for the win.  And this is exactly the type of race which NASCAR’s smartest crew chief, Chad Knaus, and the 5 time champion Jimmie Johnson excel.  These guys know how to make adjustments and set up a car to go through various race transitions.  The #48 hasn’t had the strongest start to their season, but you wouldn’t guess that with them sitting 3rd in points.  But they’ve had some bad luck and watched more than 1 win slip away.  However, they always seem to bounce back from adversity, and after last week’s pit road speeding violation, look for the #48 to do just that.  They qualified the best of all the Hendrick cars, starting 6th.  They didn’t practice all that well, but i believe that’s because they were in race trim and focusing on various set up’s for night time transitions.  He’s a 13:2 to win, which i think is right on the money.  I’ll be looking for Jimmie Johnson is victory lane.  He’s been there at Texas once before and has one of the best average finishes of 10.1 at the track.

Johnson’s team mate Mark Martin runs well at Texas with 1 Sprint Cup win and 3 Nationwide wins.  Mark said his car turns really well in race trim but in qualifying trim the car wasn’t as good, which explains his 21st place starting position.  But he has the most top tens of all active drivers at Texas.  I predict a top 15 for Mr. Martin.

Texas Motor Speedway is categorized as one of the many intermediate tracks on the circuit, which many fans and pundits have claimed are all too cookie cutter and similar.  But drivers say that each track, intermediate or not, are very different.  In pre qualifying interviews, Jeff Gordon called Texas Motor Speedway the most challenging intermediate track on the circuit.  Gordon was nervous about qualifying and spent a lot of practice time in race trim, similar to his other Hendrick team mates.  As a result of his slower practice speed, the #24 car had to make their qualifying run early when the track is hot and slick and ended up with a 32nd starting place.  But the car looked smooth in the turns, with little slipping on entry and exit, and the added practice time in race trim might mean the car will excel on long, green flag runs.  Gordon has won at Texas once before, in 2009, and has an average finish of 17th.  Vegas has him at 12 :1 odds to win and 6:1 to be in the top 3, which I think is a little high.  He’s won once this year but has been inconsistent, averaging a 17th place finish.  His crew chief, Allen Gustafsen is one of the best in the biz at adjusting race cars to changing track conditions, but with their 32nd starting position, i predict the #24 finishing top 15.

One of the best at intermediate tracks is Kasey Kahne, who is the only driver to win at Texas from the pole.  He ran a good qualifying lap, lost some time in the sun going up too high on the track, but in the shade his car ran smooth and turned in well, and hugged the bottom of the middle groove.  Oh, and he was the fastest in practice.  Kasey has had terrible luck this season, and if he can stay out of trouble I see him finishing top 10.  10:1 odds to finish top 3 seem dead on, and a 35:1 to win is a bet i’d make.

One of the most reliable factors in calculating odds in NASCAR is past performance, but Texas is a track where past performance isn’t always a reliable indicator of potential performance.  The track had it’s first race in 1997, and it took 10 years of racing to see a repeat winner.  In fact, so many different drivers have won at Texas that 8 of the top 10 in championship points have a win at the track.  Recently, we’ve seen more “streakiness” at Texas with Denny Hamlin winning both races in 2010, and Carl Edwards winning both in 2008.  But the 2011 season has been fairly unpredictable so far, with 5 different winners in the first 5 races and a record number of lead changes in three different races.  Not to mention all the last lap passing and photo finishes we’ve seen this year, it seems NASCAR has achieved the parity and increased competition they’ve strived for.  When one team starts to pull away in dominance, it seems the rest of the field can catch up in a matter of weeks.

There have been a number of pleasant surprises with new names in the top 15 in points, while others have had dismal starts to the year like Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin, who won the most races last year and finished 2nd in points, but currently sits 19th in points.  Engine woes have hurt the #11, but i think the most damage has come to their collective pride and team work.  Hamlin has been very vocal about his teams’ recent shortcomings, in the kind of way that doesn’t inspire others.  

Last year, Denny won the spring Texas race 2 weeks after knee surgery, brimming with confidence from his Martinsville win.  And he took that confidence into the fall race which was round 10 of the championship fight with the #48.  None of that confidence is apparent this year and though his record at Texas is good, i’m not looking for the #11 to fight for the win.  i think Vegas’ 11:1 to win is based too much on stats and not enough on heart.  Denny qualified 23rd, which is a surprise to no one...he started 29th and 30th for both of the races he won last year, but despite the favorable odds and stellar history, I don’t expect to see the #11 in the top 5.

A focus on stats has Kyle Busch as an 8:1 to win.  Kyle has lead the most laps of anyone this year, and has twice as many laps led as he did at this point last year.  He has a win this year and 5 top 10‘s, but has never won a Sprint Cup race at Texas, despite 7 Camping World and Nationwide wins.  This year, Kyle seems like a threat to win everywhere he goes, but I’m looking for the Roush Fords to hold him to a top 10. The most conservative odds on the table are for Kyle Busch to get a top 3, at 5:2...‘nough said.

Carl Edwards is the my race favorite to win.  He is one of the hottest drivers this year with 1 win, 4 top 10’s and an average finish of 9.5.  This hot streak has carried over from last year and his #99 team has been the poster boy for Ford Racing’s comeback, whose new FR 9 engine platform has proved capable of winning races and dominating the competition with their focus on running higher engine temp’s, a lower center of gravity and higher horsepower, just the type of engine needed to win at Texas.  Edwards is the only driver in NASCAR to have won 3 races at Texas, however, when he doesn’t win, he tends not to finish very well there.  In the last 4 races, he only has 1 top 10.  But he is starting on the outside of the front row and just won the Nationwide Race at Texas.  Vegas has Carl at 6:1 odds to win.  Brave.  I’d give him 4:1.  He’s 11:10 to be top 3, which basically means everyone expects him to do well.  I think the only thing that will keep him from winning is if he gets caught up in a wreck or has to serve a penalty.

Edward’s race team, Roush Racing, dominates at Texas and all 4 Roush drivers are starting in the top 10 positions tonight.  David Ragan is sitting on the pole and was the class of the field in practice and qualifying during which his car looked like it was running on a rail.  But he just hasn’t shown us yet that he can hold on for an entire race up front and fight off the likes of Harvick, Johnson and Busch.  I see his inexperience giving way to the marquee drivers...at first, but this season has been full of unpredictable finishes and who knows, maybe tonight we’ll see another first time winner.  If anyone is going to do it, the #6 Ford is the car.  He’s a 30:1 to win and 9:1 to be top 3.  If you’re going to take a long shot, do it with this car.

His teammate Greg Biffle will start 9th and has won at Texas and has 5 consecutive top 10‘s.  He is not a long shot.  Biffle was 2nd fastest in practice and has a good car, which was able to make up some time after a slip after turn 2 during his qualifying run.  Look for the Biff to run up front and battle for the lead, but fall back for a top 5.  Matt Kenseth was 8th fastest in practice and ran a good, solid qualifying lap, fast enough for a 4th place starting position.  And Kenseth kills it at Texas.  He has 11 top ten’s, 1 win and an average finish of 9.5.  Many in the media see this as Kenseth’s race to lose.   He certainly is hungry for a win, he hasn’t won since California in 2009.  Kenseth is 1 of the 4 drivers I have picked to win, along with Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart.  

One of the long shots is Paul Menard, who was one of the best in practice with 10 lap averages.  Menard has been one of the pleasant surprises this year, and with a 20:1 to be top 3, seems like a good payoff.  His odds to win are long, 65:1, but if there is going to be a first time winner tonight, i’d bet it will be Mr. Menard or David Ragan.  His team mate Clint Bowyer, who had a blazing fast qualifying lap, is starting 3rd, fastest of the RCR guys.  Clint’s cold start to the year might start to heat up at Texas, where he has 5 top 10’s.  I’m looking for Clint to finish top 5.  Kevin Harvick is the hottest driver in the sport right now with 2 wins in a row.  He has only led 1 lap at Texas but has 4 top 10’s in his last 5 starts, with a best finish of 3rd.  Pretty good stats, but in his qualifying run the car seemed a little jukey and was slow in practice, running 24th fastest.  Also, i must admit, I just don’t like Harvick that much despite his magical ability to scratch out good finishes where ever he goes.  I predict a top 10 for the #29.  The final RCR driver, Jeff Burton, historically runs well at Texas, with 2 wins and 9 top 10’s, but has been so bad this year and needs a good finish.  I look for these guys to be pushing with everything they have and getting a top 8.  

My dark horse pick is Regan Smith who laid down an early fast lap and has been qualifying well all year.  He starts the race 5th and is 150:1 to win.  Come on, with those odds how could you not throw something at him.  He was fast in practice and has been one of the pleasant surprises this year with 1 top 10 finish.  I expect a top 15 for them if they can stay out of trouble.

Finally, my come from behind for the win pick is Tony Stewart, who was 2nd in practice despite putting down a horrible qualifying run.  His car was very loose, possibly the result of the track not tightening up the way everyone expected, possibly a result of the tire combo not reacting exactly the way the #14 thought it would.  But if anyone can win from the back it’s Tony Stewart.  I’m looking for him to fight for the win.  I’d put him at 9:1, Vegas has him at 11:1.  We will see.

Who's Gonna Make the #48 Sweat in 2011?

     I wanted to post this before speed weeks at Daytona started in an effort to get my 2011 predictions out into the world unbiased by testing, the Duel and Shoot Out and the Daytona 500.  Alas, work got in the way, as is all too often the case.  But as a three day weekend allows time for a presidential load of chores, so too does it permit more useless inter-webbing.  Here now are my predictions (totally unsolicited and most likely to be read by no one) for those drivers and teams whom I believe will be best able to challenge the #48 for the championship.  Note how I say “challenge” because I believe ol’ Mr. 5-time is still the favorite this year and anyone who wants to win is going to have to rip the trophy from Jimmie Johnson’s hands.

  And no one is better suited then his team mate, the #24 car which is driven by Jeff Gordon...that’s co-owner of the #48 car...Jeff Gordon.  Four time Sprint Cup Champion...Jeff Gordon.  The man responsible for the hiring of Jimmie Johnson and up till 2010, co-occupant of the same shop, chassis and engines as the #48 car...Jeff Gordon.  

I know it’s no bold statement to pick a 4 time champ like Gordon as a favorite to win it all, but the #24 car has had it rough the past couple of years.  Since 2007, in which Gordon finished 2nd in points, won 6 races, and set a modern day, single season NASCAR record with 30 top ten’s, wins have been elusive and bad luck has greased their hold on their own destiny.  Gordon did manage to snap a career high 47 race winless streak in 2009, with a win at Texas Motor Speedway, but that was his only win of the season.  And 2010 saw the #24 car go winless once again despite a number of 2nd place finishes.  Many fans of the #24 have decided to put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the crew chief, Steve Letarte, who took control of the team in 2005 from Robbie Loomis, after the #24 failed to make it to the Chase (Play Offs).

Letarte has been with Hendrick Motor Sports, the #24 car’s team owner, full time since 1996, when he was just 16.  He worked his way up through the ranks of Hendrick Motor Sports and the #24 team from tire specialist to car chief, and the team saw immediate improvement when Letarte took the reigns, visiting victory lane only 6 races into his tenure.  With Letarte, the Dupont Chevy has made the Chase every year, but often times with inconsistent results.  And with a driver and fans who are used to winning, it seemed a change was inevitable.

And change came two days after the end of the 2010 season with the #24 team, and two other teams at Hendrick, making what Jeff Gordon referred to as a driver swap.  Excluding the #48 team, which remains mostly unchanged, the crew chiefs and their mechanics and engineers would go to work with different drivers and in some cases, at different team facilities and shops.  Mark Martin’s (#5) crew chief, Allen Gustafsen, is now working with the #24, Letarte moving over to Dale Earnhardt Jr. (#88), and Lance McGrew pairing up with Mark Martin (#5).  The #24 will now share a shop with the #5 and the #48 will share it’s shop with the #48.

I think this move is gonna pay off big for Gordon and the #24.  Both Letarte and Gustafsen came up through the ranks at Hendrick, both have won races and have made the Chase.  But the former pairing of Gordon and Letarte, though extremely friendly, seemed slightly stale, lacking explicit race winning chemistry.  Many critics claimed Letarte was too much of a “cheerleader” and not focused enough on the details.     Gustafsen has an engineering background and an explicit attention to detail.  He’s worked his way up through the ranks from Late Model and Truck series crew chief, to Nationwide to Cup.  He started working for Hendrick as a shock specialist for the #5 car and worked his way up to crew chief in 2005 with another rising star, Kyle Busch.  In 2009, he teamed up with Mark Martin and the #5 car gave Jimmie Johnson a run for his championship money, leading the points at the end of the regular season and finishing the year in 2nd place.  In the garage area, the guy is widely referred to as one of the smartest crew chiefs in modern day NASCAR and here’s what Jeff Gordon had to say about the move to Gustafsen; “I'm certainly looking forward to working with Alan...I've known Alan for a number of years, always respected him and I guess in the back of my mind, I always thought it would be kind of cool to work with him. It's a great opportunity."  

    I don’t think I’m the only one who interprets that last sentence to mean get ready to see the #24 car back in victory lane and Gordon seems hungrier then ever.  Not just for wins, but for a 5th championship.  I’d watch out if you got the 24 behind you on the last lap at Bristol, or Texas, or Michigan, or anywhere for that matter.  Big Daddy’s out there.

Ford is back and they look stout.  And i’m not talking about the domestic automobile market, or a single NASCAR team, but an entire race manufacturing package.  A Ford just won the Daytona 500.  And a Ford also came in 2nd place and 3rd place.  The new FR9 engines, developed with the blank sheet of paper approach by Roush Yates Engines, with it’s improved cooling system and emphasis on reliability, serviceability and manufacturability, were impressive.  Add to that the hot streak Carl Edwards (#99) ended the 2010 season with and his proven ability to win, i’d expect to see the Aflac Ford Fusion in victory lane multiple times this year.  

Every year Kyle Busch (#18) seems to become a better race car driver.  In 2011, I predict him winning the most races of the season and finishing in the top 5 in points.

My dark horse for the year, if you can call one of NASCAR’s most popular drivers a dark horse, is Kasey Kahne (#4), future Hendrick Team driver, who for 2011, is driving the Red Bull #4 Toyota Camry.  But i feel the title is appropriate for a driver who had a dismal year in 2010, not qualifying for The Chase and even leaving his former race team 5 races before the end of the season, finishing 2010 in 20th place.  It’s no surprise that Kahne was unhappy at Petty Motor Sports.  And it almost seemed inevitable that he would be snatched up by one of the sport’s heavy weight race teams.  In a multiyear, multi team deal, Kahne will join the Hendrick stables in 2012.  For 2011, Kahne will drive  for the Red Bull Team, a deal that sounds almost too good to be true for a driver of Kahne’s talent.  Kasey has 11 Sprint Cup wins and 20 poles since starting cup racing full time in 2004 and is, in my opinion, one of the best at intermediate tracks.  Imagine, being given the keys to a rocket ship and being told, “go out and drive as fast as you can, don’t worry about losing your job, just try to win.”

And i expect to see big things this year for them.  Red Bull has a very diverse and distinguished racing pedigree, winning the Formula 1 championship last year and doing well in World Rally Car.  They are a fiercely independent team whom have a rather unique position in the NASCAR world; they are self sponsored.  They answer to no one but themselves.  But last year was a strange year for them in NASCAR.  Their franchise driver, Brian VIckers, was sidelined for most of the season for medical reasons and they had a rotating lineup of drivers, none of whom are with the team this year.  But Red Bull seems set to run this year, Vickers is back and now they have a true winner in Kahne.  Their engine department is considered one of the best is NASCAR despite it’s relative young age.  The engine blow out during the Budweiser shoot out aside, Kahne qualified near the top of class for the Toyotas, which didn’t show much speed in single car qualifying but were stout in the draft during racing.  Look for much more promising results as we enter the more common NASCAR tracks and move away from the spectacle and drafting of Daytona.

Jimmie Proofing In 2011 ?

If you decide to watch a NASCAR race this season, which I highly recommend you do, you will have a chance to see one of the best racing in his prime.  Think of it like a chance to see Jordan and the Chicago Bulls during the 90‘s or the Pittsburg Steelers in the 70’s, Jimmie Johnson and the Lowe’s #48 team are that good.  Comparisons to Michael Schumacher (Formula 1) or Sebastian Loeb (World Rally Car) might seem more fitting, keeping it in the same gas guzzling, tire smoking arena.  But I think a broader comparison is appropriate for, as fans of the sport have been witnessing the past five years, some in steadfast support, others wishing for a blown tire, a dynasty is being built.

Together, driver Jimmie Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and The Hendrick Motor Sports team have won 5 consecutive championships.  That’s in a row.  They’ve won championships during dominant seasons, like in 2007 when, despite having 4 DNF’s (Did Not Finish), they won 10 out of 36 races, finished in the top 5 20 times, and had an average finish of 10.8.  The #48 has also fought their way through the field to win championships, like during 2010, when they trailed the #11 for most of the Chase and gave NASCAR one of it’s most competitive championships yet.  They’ve won titles with the previous generation race car, with the “Car of Tomorrow,” with the elevated rear wing and now with the rear spoiler.  And in a sport which is deeply grounded in the economic performance of America’s industrial sector and various corporate sponsorships, even during times of economic hardship, the #48 team has dominated.

So what, you say, NASCAR is barely a sport, they hit the gas and turn left.  Well, that is far from the truth but opinions aside, it’s hard to deny that a five-peat in any type of professional competition is remarkable.  And modern day NASCAR is a professional competition that is highly regulated.  There are rules that govern almost every aspect of the car’s mechanics, aerodynamics, electronics and fluids, some down to the 1,000th of an inch.  There are rules for driver conduct, rules for the race team, the crew chief, the pit crew, even the mechanics back in the shop.  Rules established in an effort to level the sport’s playing field because as in most nationally televised, highly profitable sports enterprises, NASCAR requires a lot of money to function.

Corporate sponsors provide much of that money, a large part of which flows directly to race teams.  Bigger teams get more money.  More money means more R & D, more engineers, more cars, etc.  So every rule, like the one that regulates the material and dimensions of an oil pan cap, not to mention the torque with which that oil pan cap must be attached to the oil pan, is enforced with the notion that on any given Sunday, or Saturday night, any of the 43 drivers might end up with that checkered flag.  Parity among competitors is what the rules are about, and it is an ideal that modern day NASCAR strives for.  Just as a salary cap aims to level the playing field for certain stick and ball sports, with similar power under the hood, the thought goes, it comes down to the strategy of the race team and the tenacity of the driver to win.

What it all boils down to is that modern day NASCAR is very, very competitive.  You’re not just fighting against 42 other drivers that wanna win just as bad as you do, but you’re fighting blistering heat, aging race tracks, red lined engines at the verge of a breakdown, dehydration and, oh geez, why is the car shaking so much?  It is hard to win a race.  It’s an endurance test run like a sprint.  And it’s even harder to string together the necessary wins and top tens needed to garner a championship.  Until Johnson began his title run in 2006, the reigning consecutive champ was Cale Yarborough, who won 3 in a row from 1976 to 1978.  Before Jimmie Johnson and Cale Yarborough, the most consecutive championships won was 2.  As many pundits and sports writers have put it, 4 was amazing, 5 was ridiculous, and 6...impossible.  Impossible, really?  

There are 2 drivers who have won the championship 7 times non consecutively over the course of their careers.  Richard Petty won 7 from 1964 to 1979, doing it with 3 different car makers, while owning and operating his own race team.  In one season alone, Petty won 27 races.  Then there’s Dale Earnhardt, who is tied with Petty for most championships won.  In the 5 seasons from 1990 to 1994, Earnhardt won the title 4 out of 5 times.  And these drivers didn’t just win titles, they won the hearts of their fans and the respect of their colleagues.  These were men, spelled M-E-N, who built their dynasties with a brick and mortar mix of sweat and blood.  They helped propel the sport of NASCAR forward and to this day, inspire legions of t-shirt clad fans who still proudly fly the #3 and #43.

But despite winning so much, The King and The Intimidator never won more than 2 straight titles.  Jack Kerouac wrote that “comparisons are odious,” and in the world of the Bodhisattava they might be.  But in sports, competition leads to comparison, especially when your talking about who the best of the best are.  And the #48 is one of the best.

There are many race fans out there whom would have something not too nice to say about the idea of the #48 winning their 6th championship in a row.  They are the fans that boo and throw their middle finger up every time Johnson wins.  Well, their hands must be getting tired because Jimmie Johnson wins, a lot.  

He is second among active drivers for wins, following his team mate and car co-owner Jeff Gordon.  He is tenth in the all time wins category, and he’s still racing.  His first full time NASCAR season was 2002.  He’s 35.  By all estimates, he still has a lot of racing left to do, and a lot of winning.  Since he started a part time Cup schedule in 2001 (that season he only ran 3 races), he has a series leading average finish of 11.7, despite having racked up 30 DNF’s.  Over the course of his full time Sprint Cup career, he’s made the Chase, NASCAR’s version of the play off’s, every year.  He is the only driver to accomplish this.  

It’s not just the results that make the #48 so remarkable, but the way in which that team achieves.  They are methodical, surgical, exacting.  They scrutinize over every detail but rarely break a sweat.  And they never give up, as evidenced during Johnson’s first championship run in 2006, when with a blown tire and a lap down, the team fought back from 39th place to win at The Brickyard, a marque race during every NASCAR season.

For the uninitiated to the sport, it’s possible to start watching a race and have no idea that you are watching a driver nicknamed “Superman.”  There is no pre race trash talk, no post race shoving matches, and he races very cleanly.  Listening to the in car audio between Johnson and Knaus during most races, race antics aside, it’s sounds like just another day at the office.  Jimmie Johnson is unassuming.  Maybe even to a fault.  Johnson has made history by winning 5 championships in a row, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. was voted most popular driver 8 times in a row.  Media stories have even been written questioning why Johnson isn’t more popular among fans, though in recent years his merchandise sales have been climbing.  Many in the media and in the grandstands have coined the term “vanilla” with regards to Johnson’s demeanor.  And that’s a claim that Johnson has had issues with since the beginning of his championship run.  "I sure as hell know I'm not vanilla.  I think it takes anybody some time to get comfortable in their shoes and their sport, and with where I went from being like a C-level driver in Nationwide ... to drive for Hendrick Motor Sports, to having success early, at the end of the day I want to be a professional and do my job. And some people formed opinions then, and it's unfortunate that if it still lingers around, because I think I've done plenty to show that I'm far from vanilla."  But during his 2010 season, a new father and already rewriting the history books, he seems to have adopted the mantra of let them say what they wanna say, I’m just gonna keep on winning.

And he does.  You could probably sum up the collective feeling of the NASCAR world during the beginning of the 2010 season, when the #48 won the first 3 out of 5 races, as “Here we go again.”  But that’s what the Lowe's Team does, they create that mind set in others.  And in doing so, they’ve upped the ante when it comes to winning.  Veteran driver Mark Martin (#5) has said that he’s never seen anyone work as hard as Johnson, and Martin is no slouch.  At 51, he could probably do a back flip over your mangled corpse after he’d beaten you in arm wrestling contest.  The #48 has the rest of NASCAR playing catch up, some even calling for changes to the racing schedule, claiming it plays too favorably to the #48‘s strengths.

Many competition changes have happened in sports in response to domination.  In the 80‘s, with Wayne Gretzky at the helm of the Oilers, the NHL implemented rule changes, as the Edmonton team, even while down players, overran most defenses.  Professional golf physically planted trees and adjusted the length of many of it courses in an effort to “Tiger proof” certain venues on the PGA tour.  And as many fans will begrudgingly admit, modern day NASCAR is not afraid to modify it’s rules for the sake of competition.  Look back as recently as 2004 and “The Matt Kenseth Rule” which changed how wins were weighted and inaugurated the Chase for the Cup after the 2003 season, when Kenseth won the Championship after only winning 1 race the whole year.  But “The Kenseth Rule,” a term which NASCAR doesn’t officially recognize, was in response to an anomaly and the #48’s dominance is anything but an anomaly.

By mid January, NASCAR had announced it’s rule changes for the 2011 season, including, among others, a massive over haul to the points system, a “wild card” addition to the Chase, and a change in race qualification when cancelled due to inclement weather.  NASCAR says the rule changes are meant to make things simpler for fans and race teams alike, and also to better reward consistently running up front and winning, all in an effort to boost ratings and increase race attendance, which have been dwindling in recent years.  While declining viewership can be attributed to an incalculable amount of factors, for example, the economic decline and rising hotel prices, some in the sport seem to think that many fans are just sick of seeing the same team winning all the time.  And while no one would ever go on record for citing the #48 as a catalyst for the recent changes, you could make the argument that they are the result of what many who are sick of seeing the #48 win refer to as Jimmie-proofing.  

Jimmie-proofing is a term that started to make the rounds during the 2008 Chase, when after 5 races, Johnson had amounted a 149 point lead over 2nd place Biffle (#16) and seemed to be well on his way to his third straight title.  The Chase was created to add drama to the final third of the season, but many complained that with the #48, it has become too repetitive.

It’s no stranger to anyone in the sport that the 10 races in the Chase are hosted at some of the #48’s best tracks.  7 of the 10 courses are statistically Johnson’s best.  At Martinsville, race number 7 of the 2011 Chase, among active drivers, Johnson has a series best average finish of 5.3 and 6 wins.  Johnson admits this trend himself.  And it’s what critics of the #48 always cite when arguing for a change in the Chase.

So do the relatively minor changes to the 2011 Chase show any evidence of Jimmie-proofing?  Changes to the current Chase schedule were announced during the middle of the 2010 season.  Fontana, California would lose one race, it’s end of season Chase race, replaced by shifting the Chicago race, which will now be the Chase opener, and inaugurating a mid season race in Kentucky.  Also, the Talladega race would come a week earlier, flip flopping with Martinsville.  Now, the details surrounding a venue change are massive.  You’re dealing with contracts and sponsorship deals, shifting demographics, fan attendance, not to mention the fallout for a race town’s local economy.  NASCAR has said the reason for the venue change was declining attendance in California and increased demand in the mid-west.  Seems reasonable, but any chance Jimmie-proofing could have had an affect on this decision?

It’s possible.  Fontana is one of Johnson’s best tracks, his average finish since 2002 is 5.31 with 5 wins.  He’s finished either first or second at Fontana at least once during every full season of Sprint Cup competition he’s run, except for 2003.  He doesn’t do nearly as well at Chicago, with an average finish of 10th, no wins and 1 DNF.  In the past 5 years, Johnson’s average finish at Chicago is ranked 14th among active drivers.  A mediocre start to the Chase for the #48 may be music to the ears of many.  

The other change to the Chase, the flip flopping of the Talladega and Martinsville race, may seem minor and offer no evidence of Jimmie-proofing, but Martinsville is one of the #48’s best tracks.  Talladega is one of his worst with 18 starts, an average finish of 17.2, only 1 win and 7 DNF’s.  Talladega, with it’s restrictor plates and draft, is unpredictable.  Any one can win.  Putting this “wild card” at the heart of the chase schedule adds more drama.  As does moving what has become one of the nails to Johnson’s championship coffin a little later.  A stretch?  Maybe, but for Jimmie-proofing to work, it must be subtle.

Just like the affects the qualifying rain out rule change will have on the #48.  This change, which will go into effect when a qualifying run doesn’t occur because of bad weather, will establish the pole position and racing line up based on top speeds in practice instead of driver’s points.  Makes sense, reward the teams who have figured out their set up’s early and shown their speed instead of putting the season points leader up front.  Especially when the #48 has been a front runner almost every season.  Since 2006, out of 130 pre Chase races, the #48 has gotten 77 top tens, putting them near the front of the series often.  Since 2006, there have been 25 rainouts during qualifying, resulting in Johnson starting an average of 3.28 when positioning was determined by points.  In 2008, there were a record 10 races in which qualifying was rained out, including 3 consecutive rainouts in October, resulting in Johnson having 3 consecutive pole positions.  So in the off chance that a qualifying is rained out, it gives a much larger percentage of race teams, especially those who worked on qualifying trim in practice, a chance to start ahead of the #48.

Hey, every little bit helps.  Like the addition of a “wild card” to the Chase.  Last year Jamie McMurray (#1) won a number of marquee races but didn’t make the Chase.  Would his addition to the 12 play off drivers have helped rattle the #48’s cage?  Or how about the inclusion of Tony Stewart (#14) to the 2006 Chase, which he failed to qualify for, but went on to win 3 of the Chase races anyway.

That said, is there any evidence of Jimmie-proofing in the largest rules change for 2011, the overhaul of the points system?  Nascar claims their main reason for developing a new system, which rewards 1 point for each position out of 43 (1st place is worth 43 points, last place is worth 1 point) plus various bonus points (1 point for leading a lap, 1 point for leading the most laps, 3 points for winning) is to make things simpler.  And they definitely do.  But does it reward winning more?  The points spread between a first place finish and a fifth place finish is smaller with the new system, but the spread between a mid pack result and a DNF is much larger.  With the new points system, it certainly hurts you much more if you do poorly.  And that said, if you use the new points system with last year’s results, the field would be more tightly spaced come Chase time and the #48, with their 4 DNF’s, would have been further back in the field.

So how do these changes, Jimmie-proofing or not, bode for the coming season?  Here’s what Johnson had to say about it, “I know people expect me to react and think, 'Oh, they've got to leave it alone, don't change it...I don't care what races are in the Chase, the format to win the championship, I could care less, because I feel confident that my team will be able to win championships under any set of circumstances...”

Doesn’t sound good for everyone else, and “handicapping” the competition has had mixed results.  In the case of Gretzky, he and the Oilers kept on keeping on.  Only when that hockey dynasty was broken up did the NHL revert back to it’s original player format.  Woods continued to dominate, until we all learned how much he really loves unlimited text and picture messaging, and the rule changes he inspired actually ended up hurting those golfers with smaller drives.

And that said, every time a news program aires a story about a superstar athlete involved in a marriage scandal or a gun charge or a D.U.I., it seems more and more evident that Johnson and the #48 team are quietly and diligently rewriting the playbook for the American superstar.  Go to work every day, work harder and longer than all the others, study, innovate, never give up.  Isn’t that what America should want in their sports stars and role models?  Ignore the critics, stay humble, results trump headlines.  And while they enter the coming season as heavy favorites, the #48 shows no signs of letting off the throttle, to do so would violate their collective morals.  Then again, I’m not so sure they know how to let up.