If you decide to watch a NASCAR race this season, which I highly recommend you do, you will have a chance to see one of the best racing in his prime. Think of it like a chance to see Jordan and the Chicago Bulls during the 90‘s or the Pittsburg Steelers in the 70’s, Jimmie Johnson and the Lowe’s #48 team are that good. Comparisons to Michael Schumacher (Formula 1) or Sebastian Loeb (World Rally Car) might seem more fitting, keeping it in the same gas guzzling, tire smoking arena. But I think a broader comparison is appropriate for, as fans of the sport have been witnessing the past five years, some in steadfast support, others wishing for a blown tire, a dynasty is being built.
Together, driver Jimmie Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and The Hendrick Motor Sports team have won 5 consecutive championships. That’s in a row. They’ve won championships during dominant seasons, like in 2007 when, despite having 4 DNF’s (Did Not Finish), they won 10 out of 36 races, finished in the top 5 20 times, and had an average finish of 10.8. The #48 has also fought their way through the field to win championships, like during 2010, when they trailed the #11 for most of the Chase and gave NASCAR one of it’s most competitive championships yet. They’ve won titles with the previous generation race car, with the “Car of Tomorrow,” with the elevated rear wing and now with the rear spoiler. And in a sport which is deeply grounded in the economic performance of America’s industrial sector and various corporate sponsorships, even during times of economic hardship, the #48 team has dominated.
So what, you say, NASCAR is barely a sport, they hit the gas and turn left. Well, that is far from the truth but opinions aside, it’s hard to deny that a five-peat in any type of professional competition is remarkable. And modern day NASCAR is a professional competition that is highly regulated. There are rules that govern almost every aspect of the car’s mechanics, aerodynamics, electronics and fluids, some down to the 1,000th of an inch. There are rules for driver conduct, rules for the race team, the crew chief, the pit crew, even the mechanics back in the shop. Rules established in an effort to level the sport’s playing field because as in most nationally televised, highly profitable sports enterprises, NASCAR requires a lot of money to function.
Corporate sponsors provide much of that money, a large part of which flows directly to race teams. Bigger teams get more money. More money means more R & D, more engineers, more cars, etc. So every rule, like the one that regulates the material and dimensions of an oil pan cap, not to mention the torque with which that oil pan cap must be attached to the oil pan, is enforced with the notion that on any given Sunday, or Saturday night, any of the 43 drivers might end up with that checkered flag. Parity among competitors is what the rules are about, and it is an ideal that modern day NASCAR strives for. Just as a salary cap aims to level the playing field for certain stick and ball sports, with similar power under the hood, the thought goes, it comes down to the strategy of the race team and the tenacity of the driver to win.
What it all boils down to is that modern day NASCAR is very, very competitive. You’re not just fighting against 42 other drivers that wanna win just as bad as you do, but you’re fighting blistering heat, aging race tracks, red lined engines at the verge of a breakdown, dehydration and, oh geez, why is the car shaking so much? It is hard to win a race. It’s an endurance test run like a sprint. And it’s even harder to string together the necessary wins and top tens needed to garner a championship. Until Johnson began his title run in 2006, the reigning consecutive champ was Cale Yarborough, who won 3 in a row from 1976 to 1978. Before Jimmie Johnson and Cale Yarborough, the most consecutive championships won was 2. As many pundits and sports writers have put it, 4 was amazing, 5 was ridiculous, and 6...impossible. Impossible, really?
There are 2 drivers who have won the championship 7 times non consecutively over the course of their careers. Richard Petty won 7 from 1964 to 1979, doing it with 3 different car makers, while owning and operating his own race team. In one season alone, Petty won 27 races. Then there’s Dale Earnhardt, who is tied with Petty for most championships won. In the 5 seasons from 1990 to 1994, Earnhardt won the title 4 out of 5 times. And these drivers didn’t just win titles, they won the hearts of their fans and the respect of their colleagues. These were men, spelled M-E-N, who built their dynasties with a brick and mortar mix of sweat and blood. They helped propel the sport of NASCAR forward and to this day, inspire legions of t-shirt clad fans who still proudly fly the #3 and #43.
But despite winning so much, The King and The Intimidator never won more than 2 straight titles. Jack Kerouac wrote that “comparisons are odious,” and in the world of the Bodhisattava they might be. But in sports, competition leads to comparison, especially when your talking about who the best of the best are. And the #48 is one of the best.
There are many race fans out there whom would have something not too nice to say about the idea of the #48 winning their 6th championship in a row. They are the fans that boo and throw their middle finger up every time Johnson wins. Well, their hands must be getting tired because Jimmie Johnson wins, a lot.
He is second among active drivers for wins, following his team mate and car co-owner Jeff Gordon. He is tenth in the all time wins category, and he’s still racing. His first full time NASCAR season was 2002. He’s 35. By all estimates, he still has a lot of racing left to do, and a lot of winning. Since he started a part time Cup schedule in 2001 (that season he only ran 3 races), he has a series leading average finish of 11.7, despite having racked up 30 DNF’s. Over the course of his full time Sprint Cup career, he’s made the Chase, NASCAR’s version of the play off’s, every year. He is the only driver to accomplish this.
It’s not just the results that make the #48 so remarkable, but the way in which that team achieves. They are methodical, surgical, exacting. They scrutinize over every detail but rarely break a sweat. And they never give up, as evidenced during Johnson’s first championship run in 2006, when with a blown tire and a lap down, the team fought back from 39th place to win at The Brickyard, a marque race during every NASCAR season.
For the uninitiated to the sport, it’s possible to start watching a race and have no idea that you are watching a driver nicknamed “Superman.” There is no pre race trash talk, no post race shoving matches, and he races very cleanly. Listening to the in car audio between Johnson and Knaus during most races, race antics aside, it’s sounds like just another day at the office. Jimmie Johnson is unassuming. Maybe even to a fault. Johnson has made history by winning 5 championships in a row, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. was voted most popular driver 8 times in a row. Media stories have even been written questioning why Johnson isn’t more popular among fans, though in recent years his merchandise sales have been climbing. Many in the media and in the grandstands have coined the term “vanilla” with regards to Johnson’s demeanor. And that’s a claim that Johnson has had issues with since the beginning of his championship run. "I sure as hell know I'm not vanilla. I think it takes anybody some time to get comfortable in their shoes and their sport, and with where I went from being like a C-level driver in Nationwide ... to drive for Hendrick Motor Sports, to having success early, at the end of the day I want to be a professional and do my job. And some people formed opinions then, and it's unfortunate that if it still lingers around, because I think I've done plenty to show that I'm far from vanilla." But during his 2010 season, a new father and already rewriting the history books, he seems to have adopted the mantra of let them say what they wanna say, I’m just gonna keep on winning.
And he does. You could probably sum up the collective feeling of the NASCAR world during the beginning of the 2010 season, when the #48 won the first 3 out of 5 races, as “Here we go again.” But that’s what the Lowe's Team does, they create that mind set in others. And in doing so, they’ve upped the ante when it comes to winning. Veteran driver Mark Martin (#5) has said that he’s never seen anyone work as hard as Johnson, and Martin is no slouch. At 51, he could probably do a back flip over your mangled corpse after he’d beaten you in arm wrestling contest. The #48 has the rest of NASCAR playing catch up, some even calling for changes to the racing schedule, claiming it plays too favorably to the #48‘s strengths.
Many competition changes have happened in sports in response to domination. In the 80‘s, with Wayne Gretzky at the helm of the Oilers, the NHL implemented rule changes, as the Edmonton team, even while down players, overran most defenses. Professional golf physically planted trees and adjusted the length of many of it courses in an effort to “Tiger proof” certain venues on the PGA tour. And as many fans will begrudgingly admit, modern day NASCAR is not afraid to modify it’s rules for the sake of competition. Look back as recently as 2004 and “The Matt Kenseth Rule” which changed how wins were weighted and inaugurated the Chase for the Cup after the 2003 season, when Kenseth won the Championship after only winning 1 race the whole year. But “The Kenseth Rule,” a term which NASCAR doesn’t officially recognize, was in response to an anomaly and the #48’s dominance is anything but an anomaly.
By mid January, NASCAR had announced it’s rule changes for the 2011 season, including, among others, a massive over haul to the points system, a “wild card” addition to the Chase, and a change in race qualification when cancelled due to inclement weather. NASCAR says the rule changes are meant to make things simpler for fans and race teams alike, and also to better reward consistently running up front and winning, all in an effort to boost ratings and increase race attendance, which have been dwindling in recent years. While declining viewership can be attributed to an incalculable amount of factors, for example, the economic decline and rising hotel prices, some in the sport seem to think that many fans are just sick of seeing the same team winning all the time. And while no one would ever go on record for citing the #48 as a catalyst for the recent changes, you could make the argument that they are the result of what many who are sick of seeing the #48 win refer to as Jimmie-proofing.
Jimmie-proofing is a term that started to make the rounds during the 2008 Chase, when after 5 races, Johnson had amounted a 149 point lead over 2nd place Biffle (#16) and seemed to be well on his way to his third straight title. The Chase was created to add drama to the final third of the season, but many complained that with the #48, it has become too repetitive.
It’s no stranger to anyone in the sport that the 10 races in the Chase are hosted at some of the #48’s best tracks. 7 of the 10 courses are statistically Johnson’s best. At Martinsville, race number 7 of the 2011 Chase, among active drivers, Johnson has a series best average finish of 5.3 and 6 wins. Johnson admits this trend himself. And it’s what critics of the #48 always cite when arguing for a change in the Chase.
So do the relatively minor changes to the 2011 Chase show any evidence of Jimmie-proofing? Changes to the current Chase schedule were announced during the middle of the 2010 season. Fontana, California would lose one race, it’s end of season Chase race, replaced by shifting the Chicago race, which will now be the Chase opener, and inaugurating a mid season race in Kentucky. Also, the Talladega race would come a week earlier, flip flopping with Martinsville. Now, the details surrounding a venue change are massive. You’re dealing with contracts and sponsorship deals, shifting demographics, fan attendance, not to mention the fallout for a race town’s local economy. NASCAR has said the reason for the venue change was declining attendance in California and increased demand in the mid-west. Seems reasonable, but any chance Jimmie-proofing could have had an affect on this decision?
It’s possible. Fontana is one of Johnson’s best tracks, his average finish since 2002 is 5.31 with 5 wins. He’s finished either first or second at Fontana at least once during every full season of Sprint Cup competition he’s run, except for 2003. He doesn’t do nearly as well at Chicago, with an average finish of 10th, no wins and 1 DNF. In the past 5 years, Johnson’s average finish at Chicago is ranked 14th among active drivers. A mediocre start to the Chase for the #48 may be music to the ears of many.
The other change to the Chase, the flip flopping of the Talladega and Martinsville race, may seem minor and offer no evidence of Jimmie-proofing, but Martinsville is one of the #48’s best tracks. Talladega is one of his worst with 18 starts, an average finish of 17.2, only 1 win and 7 DNF’s. Talladega, with it’s restrictor plates and draft, is unpredictable. Any one can win. Putting this “wild card” at the heart of the chase schedule adds more drama. As does moving what has become one of the nails to Johnson’s championship coffin a little later. A stretch? Maybe, but for Jimmie-proofing to work, it must be subtle.
Just like the affects the qualifying rain out rule change will have on the #48. This change, which will go into effect when a qualifying run doesn’t occur because of bad weather, will establish the pole position and racing line up based on top speeds in practice instead of driver’s points. Makes sense, reward the teams who have figured out their set up’s early and shown their speed instead of putting the season points leader up front. Especially when the #48 has been a front runner almost every season. Since 2006, out of 130 pre Chase races, the #48 has gotten 77 top tens, putting them near the front of the series often. Since 2006, there have been 25 rainouts during qualifying, resulting in Johnson starting an average of 3.28 when positioning was determined by points. In 2008, there were a record 10 races in which qualifying was rained out, including 3 consecutive rainouts in October, resulting in Johnson having 3 consecutive pole positions. So in the off chance that a qualifying is rained out, it gives a much larger percentage of race teams, especially those who worked on qualifying trim in practice, a chance to start ahead of the #48.
Hey, every little bit helps. Like the addition of a “wild card” to the Chase. Last year Jamie McMurray (#1) won a number of marquee races but didn’t make the Chase. Would his addition to the 12 play off drivers have helped rattle the #48’s cage? Or how about the inclusion of Tony Stewart (#14) to the 2006 Chase, which he failed to qualify for, but went on to win 3 of the Chase races anyway.
That said, is there any evidence of Jimmie-proofing in the largest rules change for 2011, the overhaul of the points system? Nascar claims their main reason for developing a new system, which rewards 1 point for each position out of 43 (1st place is worth 43 points, last place is worth 1 point) plus various bonus points (1 point for leading a lap, 1 point for leading the most laps, 3 points for winning) is to make things simpler. And they definitely do. But does it reward winning more? The points spread between a first place finish and a fifth place finish is smaller with the new system, but the spread between a mid pack result and a DNF is much larger. With the new points system, it certainly hurts you much more if you do poorly. And that said, if you use the new points system with last year’s results, the field would be more tightly spaced come Chase time and the #48, with their 4 DNF’s, would have been further back in the field.
So how do these changes, Jimmie-proofing or not, bode for the coming season? Here’s what Johnson had to say about it, “I know people expect me to react and think, 'Oh, they've got to leave it alone, don't change it...I don't care what races are in the Chase, the format to win the championship, I could care less, because I feel confident that my team will be able to win championships under any set of circumstances...”
Doesn’t sound good for everyone else, and “handicapping” the competition has had mixed results. In the case of Gretzky, he and the Oilers kept on keeping on. Only when that hockey dynasty was broken up did the NHL revert back to it’s original player format. Woods continued to dominate, until we all learned how much he really loves unlimited text and picture messaging, and the rule changes he inspired actually ended up hurting those golfers with smaller drives.
And that said, every time a news program aires a story about a superstar athlete involved in a marriage scandal or a gun charge or a D.U.I., it seems more and more evident that Johnson and the #48 team are quietly and diligently rewriting the playbook for the American superstar. Go to work every day, work harder and longer than all the others, study, innovate, never give up. Isn’t that what America should want in their sports stars and role models? Ignore the critics, stay humble, results trump headlines. And while they enter the coming season as heavy favorites, the #48 shows no signs of letting off the throttle, to do so would violate their collective morals. Then again, I’m not so sure they know how to let up.
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